Trump leads Biden by three points in potential 2024 matchup

Former President Donald Trump has a narrow lead over President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 election, according to a poll released Tuesday that shows the former commander-in-chief has gained ground over his Democratic rival since November. ​

Trump, 76, has the support of 44% of those surveyed, compared to 41% for Biden, while another 10% say they would back another presidential candidate in two years, the Emerson College Poll found

The same poll in November found the 80-year-old Biden ahead of Trump by 45% to 41% in a hypothetical rerun of the 2020 election.

The survey also showed a bounce in Biden’s job approval from 39% in November to 44% now. His disapproval rating, meanwhile, fell from 52% in November to 48% now.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of the Emerson poll, said Biden’s rebound was due to an increase in support among independents, college graduates, and voters of both sexes.


Former President Donald Trump leads President Biden by 3 points in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.

Nearly six in 10 Democratic primary voters — 58% — think Biden should be their standard-bearer in 2024, but 42% still say they want someone else. 

Trump, who announced a third consecutive White House bid in November, has a 26-percentage point lead (55% to 29%) over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is seen as the former president’s most potent Republican primary challenger.

The rest of the Republican field remains far behind, with former Vice President Mike Pence on 6%; former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley garnering 3% support; and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, and former House Speaker Paul Ryan all on 1%.


President Biden, speaking at the White House on Tuesday, fell behind former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.
President Biden fell behind former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.
AFP via Getty Images

Trump has been stuck on 55% of the Republican primary vote since November, but backing for DeSantis has climbed by four percentage points over the same period. Support for Pence and Cruz dropped by two percentage points each, while Haley’s support remained steady.

The poll surveyed 1,015 registered voters between Jan. 19-21 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus three percentage points.