Expert NFL picks and odds

Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Cowboys vs. Rams predictions and picks for their NFL Week 5 showdown, which is live Sunday on FOX at 4:25 p.m. EST.

Mistake-free football from backup QB Cooper Rush and a relentless defense have eased the Cowboys’ concerns after Dak Prescott was injured. Coming off a championship season, the Rams’ offense has looked meek against dynamic defenses from the Bills and 49ers.

Cowboys vs. Rams predictions

Cowboys vs. Rams picks and analysis

Cooper Rush has been lauded in the three-game winning streak, but 15 sacks from the Cowboys’ defense and an ability to keep opponents off the scoreboard has carried the team. The Rams aren’t controlling teams with their passing game and could lean into the run this week.

Cowboys +5.5

Prescott went down, Rush has gone 3-0 at the helm and a hero has been anointed in Dallas. Except Rush himself has gone out of his way to point out the play of the Cowboys defense, which is third-best in the NFL with 15.5 points allowed per game and second with 15 sacks.

Now, all that pass-rush potential goes up against the Rams’ Matthew Stafford, who has been sacked 16 times, tied for second most in the NFL. A banged-up offensive line and a predictable offensive game plan have made Los Angeles vulnerable to blitzes in the early going.

Rush knows his own team’s gameplan by now. Take what the defense gives and avoid turnovers, then wait for the defense to offer prime scoring chances. He surely will be tested by a veteran Rams defense that won’t want to fall to 2-3, but he should be able to keep it close.

Our Pick: Cowboys +5.5, -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Game under 43.0 total points

There was a time in the 70s and 80s when Cowboys-Rams was football at its finest. That shouldn’t be the case Sunday when the defense is expected to take center stage, and the offenses hang on for dear life. Neither team has shown an ability to light up the scoreboard.

The Cowboys, mostly under Rush, actually have a slightly better scoring offense than the Rams under Stafford at 17.8-17.5. That in itself is an advertisement for a low-scoring game. The Cowboys don’t want to get into a track meet and the Rams can’t right now.

Injuries on the offensive line mean the Rams will have more issues with the pass rush. Dallas is weaker at rush defense, but even if Malcolm Brown returns, Los Angeles isn’t showing much with Darrell Henderson Jr. and Cam Akers at running back. Don’t expect the Cowboys to stray from the offensive script now.

Our Pick: Game under 43.0, -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the NFL?

Ezekiel Elliott under 46.5 rushing yards

Despite an inexperienced quarterback, the Cowboys haven’t been able to lean into their running game as much as expected, with a mediocre 104.0 yards per game on the ground this season. Elliott has averaged 58.8 yards per game and has been under 55 yards three times.

And despite its unquestioned stars in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, the Los Angeles defense has had exactly taken control in games like the Dallas defense has. Some of that issue, though, falls to the poor execution on offense and putting that defense in tough spots.

Expect the Rams to make things chaotic on defense, leaning on Donald to control the line and Ramsey to play man coverage on the outside while the team beefs up the pass rush. Elliott will have to deal with a loaded defensive line and might see his usage drop if the Cowboys trail.

Our Pick: Ezekiel Elliott under 46.5 rushing yards, -131 at Caesars Sportsbook

Cowboys vs. Rams odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total Points 43.0
Cowboys	(+5.5) -110	+196	Over   -110
Rams	(-5.5) -110	-240	Under -110