Odds, expert Week 5 NFL picks today

Somehow, someway, the Packers and Giants are both 3-1 heading into their Week 5 clash in London. But oddsmakers clearly don’t see these two teams as equal.

Green Bay is dealing as an 8-point favorite at BetMGM after escaping with an overtime win last week against the short-handed Patriots. Can a thinned New York roster put up a similar effort in this one?

Here’s how we’re betting Sunday’s contest, which kicks off at 9:30 p.m. ET on NFL Network.

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  • Packers -8 (-110), moneyline -375
  • Giants +8 (-110), moneyline +300
  • O/U 41 (-110)

Packers vs. Giants prediction and analysis

Both of these teams have limped their way to 3-1 starts to the season, and both still have major questions to answer heading into Week 5 – particularly on the offensive end.

Sure, the Packers rank fourth in yards per game (395) and feature the two-time reigning MVP in, Aaron Rodgers. But that hasn’t resulted in points: Green Bay is tied for the NFL’s 21st-best scoring offense (18.8 PPG), and it’s yet to score 30 points in a game this season.


The biggest issue? A piecemeal receiving corps, which we all knew was this team’s potential Kryptonite heading into the season. Rookie Romeo Doubs is this team’s leading receiver (184), ahead of former undrafted wideout Allen Lazard (174) and veteran castoffs Randall Cobb (150) and Sammy Watkins (111). Second-round pick Christian Watson (51) has caught just six of 10 targets sent his way while running backs Aaron Jones (81) and A.J. Dillon (69) have been mostly non-existent as true receivers.

That’s put the onus on those two rushers to carry this team on the ground. So far, that’s come with mixed results: the Packers rank in the top 10 in rushing yards per game (145) and per carry (5.0) and fifth in rushing DVOA, but they have just three rushing scores on the season despite a whopping 18 rushes of 10 or more yards.

Maybe it all comes to fruition against this Giants’ defense, which has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (141.0) through the first four weeks. Yet the Patriots – who rank 31st in rush defense DVOA – still held Green Bay to 24 points in regulation, in part because of the Packers’ 6-for-14 mark on third downs. We could see a similar story on Sunday, as these teams rank first and second in opponent third-down conversion rate to anchor top-10 scoring defenses.

Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones
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New York is also facing serious issues with its own receiving corps. Top option Sterling Shepard (knee) is out for the year; secondary options Kadarius Toney (hamstring), Wan’Dale Robinson (knee), and Kenny Golladay (knee) also won’t be on the field Sunday. That leaves the likes of Richie James, Darius Slayton, and David Sills to catch passes from Daniel Jones, who is fighting through an ankle injury of his own.

In short, don’t count on much offensive firepower from the Giants, who already ranked as a below-average offensive unit even before a new rash of injuries. The same goes for the Packers after a string of uneven performances offensively. I don’t expect either unit to suddenly find their rhythm in London in a matchup that screams under.

Packers vs. Giants pick