Padres vs. Rangers prediction: Over is the play

Something has to give in Friday’s clash in Texas between the Rangers and San Diego Padres, as the Rangers have played just two Unders so far this season while each of the Padres’ past six games have dipped under the total.

The Rangers are 28th in the league in team ERA at 6.06 while the Padres are second at 1.97 with both teams sending offseason acquisitions to the mound.

Joe Musgrove pitched six scoreless with eight strikeouts and no walks in his debut for the Padres after going 1-5 last season with a 3.86 ERA and surrendering 3.6 walks per nine innings.

Both teams have an on-base percentage between .340 and .342 and both rank in the top eight in runners stranded on base with the Rangers leaving on 3.8 per game and the Padres four.

Kohei Arihara gave up three runs in five innings with just one strikeout on his debut for Texas after coming over from the NPB in Japan, where he had an 8-9 record with a 3.46 ERA and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings.


The Rangers bullpen backs up Arihara with an 8.61 ERA, the second-worst in MLB while the Padres’ 1.09 bullpen ERA is the best in the league. That bullpen number should regress for San Diego as 97 percent of base runners have been stranded against them, and both offenses figure to get hot Friday.

The play: Padres vs. Rangers, Total Over 9 runs