JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon thinks the US economy is poised to come roaring back from the coronavirus crisis over the next two years.
In his annual letter to shareholders, America’s most famous banker said hefty government spending and consumers’ pent-up savings have primed the nation for an economic explosion that will likely stretch into 2023.
“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more [quantitative easing], a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the US economy will likely boom,” Dimon wrote in the 66-page letter released Wednesday.
“This boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023.”
Dimon said the feds’ aggressive response to the pandemic-induced downturn would produce much stronger growth than that seen in the years after the Great Recession that he led JPMorgan through.
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing — the central bank’s practice of buying up assets that’s also known as QE — and the government’s massive deficit spending are “of a completely different magnitude” than the response to the last economic crisis, he said.
But the long-term effects of the coming boom won’t be known until the quality and effectiveness of the government’s historic investments become clear, according to Dimon.
“I hope there is extraordinary discipline on how all of this money is spent,” he wrote. “Spent wisely, it will create more economic opportunity for everyone.”
Dimon’s letter struck a much more optimistic tone than last year’s missive, which predicted that COVID-related lockdowns and soaring unemployment would plunge the US into a “bad recession.”
Economic data proved him right, with gross domestic product suffering its worst contraction since the Great Depression and unemployment reaching its highest level on record.
GDP and employment have since recouped some of those losses, and economists contend the recovery will speed up in the coming months as more Americans get vaccinated and start spending more money.
“We have the resources to emerge from this latest economic crisis as a stronger country,” wrote Dimon, who went through emergency heart surgery at the onset of the COVID crisis last year.